A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
